Over the past two weeks, Trump’s polling numbers have steadily fallen while Clinton’s numbers have held steady or risen. While most polls have Clinton ahead by an average of about 5 points, some polls show her ahead by as much as 13 points. These polling numbers reflect the popular vote and not electoral college votes. The states in which Trump has the largest majority are (with the exception of Texas) states with few electoral votes. What that means is that Trump may well win those states but his likelihood of getting the necessary electoral votes to win the presidency is about 8%, what anybody would call a longshot.