Trump’s Odds of Winning Drop 12 Percent Overnight, Poll Tracking Firm Reports Posted August 1, 2016 Written By Michael Levin Share post:Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window)Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window) Likely due to the controversy over Trump’s derogatory remarks about a Gold Star family, Trump’s polling has dropped dramatically in the past 24 hours. Here is the state-by-state breakdown of how these figures are derived: